Presidential elections next May in the Philippines could prove pivotal to both the country’s democracy and alliance with the United States. By extension, the election could influence President Biden’s foreign policy goals of strengthening human rights and countering China’s great power ambitions. Incumbent President Rodrigo Duterte has decided not to seek the vice presidency, giving his blessing instead to close ally Christopher Lawrence Go. With his daughter Sara Duterte-Carpio seeking election as president, Rodrigo Duterte is well-positioned to retain a commanding influence in Philippine politics. Duterte’s presidency has generated controversy, above all for his campaign against drug trafficking, which has resulted in the deaths of thousands of Filipinos. Human rights and rule of law activists in the Philippines and abroad have expressed mounting alarm over Duterte’s harsh and often extrajudicial drug measures.
Duterte has not only tested the Philippines’ democracy, but also its relationship with the United States. He has repeatedly criticized the United States and praised China, viewing Beijing as a lucrative economic partner. Last July, however, Duterte withdrew his long-standing threat to revoke the 1998 Visiting Forces Agreement between Washington and Manila, which allows U.S. military personnel to operate in the country. Duterte appears to be responding to popular disillusionment with China, which many Filipinos fault for its aggressive behavior over disputed maritime claims in the South China Sea and for failing to adequately assist the Philippines in its fight against Covid-19. Washington has worked to capitalize on this opening, authorizing $2.6 billion in defense aid to the Philippines and distributing millions of American-made Covid-19 vaccines this summer. Tensions persist, however, chiefly over Duterte’s drug policies, which his political allies will likely continue if elected. Given the Philippines’ strategic position between the U.S. and China and importance as a major democracy, the future of its relations with the United States will contribute to whether and how President Biden achieves his human rights and geopolitical goals.
Questions and Background
- Despite its defense partnership with the United States, why would some in the Philippines seek to prioritize relations with China?
- Can the United States both rejuvenate its alliance with the Philippines and dissuade abuses to the rule of law committed through the government’s drug campaign?
- Has China’s territorial and economic ambitions alienated its neighbors? How can Washington use the discomfort caused by China’s ambitions to secure partners?
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