For now, the standoff is (apparently) over. As of this morning, Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu released a statement explaining that the recent Russian troop buildup along the Ukrainian border was a snap ‘military exercise’, and that troops would return to their bases. This is a live story, and experts are scrambling to react; here’s the background:
Between March 27 and April 16 of this year, Maxar Technologies, a commercial imaging company, released satellite images revealing a massive Russian military buildup on its border with Ukraine and in Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. The images only grew more menacing: European intelligence indicated that more than 100,000 troops, reinforced by armored divisions and airpower, were threatening sovereign Ukrainian territory. Recent reports indicated that Russia was also performing naval and air exercises in international areas of the Black Sea. U.S. officials warned that the Russians were mustering sufficient force for a serious military incursion.
This buildup came in the context of Russia’s seven-year-old conflict with Ukraine over governance disputes in Ukraine’s Donbas region, a conflict that has already taken 14,000 lives. The Kremlin claimed precautionary measures, but Western diplomats read other motives into the situation – most importantly, an attempt by President Putin to show strength ahead of Russia’s fall elections, ones that will be made more difficult both by pandemic-induced hardships and the recent unrest incited by Alexei Navalny, prominent Putin critic, which has brought many Russians onto the streets. As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky talked about readying his nation for war, the United States and its NATO allies urged de-escalation and promised to “act firmly” in defense of Ukrainian sovereignty.
Questions and Background
- In the event of another Russian buildup, to what degree should the U.S. come to the aid of Ukraine to deter an invasion? Are there any downsides to putting U.S. credibility on the line?
- In the event of a Russian invasion, what is the wisest course for U.S. policymakers to take – either in blunting the incursion or managing a ceasefire?
- Going forward, how should U.S. policymakers adapt their force planning strategy toward Russia in the context of great power competition with China?
Deter Russia in Ukraine and Avoid a Sino-Russian Dual Alliance
Jakub Grygiel. The National Interest. April 16, 2021.
Europe Has No Excuse For Letting Russia Surprise It Again
Christopher Meyer. Politico. April 21, 2021.
Putin’s Ukraine War: Can the West Prevent a New Russian Offensive?
Peter Dickinson. Atlantic Council. April 20, 2021.
Listen: What New Sanctions Will Mean for US/Russia Relationship
Alina Polyakova. NPR. April 17, 2021.