This past week, amidst an ongoing humanitarian crisis on the Belarus-Poland border, Russia began massing troops opposite war-torn eastern Ukraine. Over a hundred thousand Russian soldiers have now been deployed to the Ukrainian frontier. Capturing Western anxiety over Russia’s seemingly belligerent intentions, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has cautioned treaty members that they should “prepare for the worst.”
Since the overthrow of Ukraine’s Russia-aligned president Viktor Yanukovych in 2014, Russia has sought to regain influence over its eastern neighbor. Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in March of that year, and also began to arm separatist militias in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. Russia has claimed its actions were in defense of Ukraine’s Russian-speaking population, and in response to NATO’s involvement in Ukraine. While Russian aggression declined following the French-German brokered Minsk Protocol in 2015, violence in the Donbas has persisted, to the loss of thousands of lives. This Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded “legal guarantees” from NATO that it would not expand eastward to embrace Ukraine, raising the stakes of the standoff. NATO has already rebuffed this demand, reiterating its principle that every country is entitled to independently decide its relations with the alliance. Whether and how this impasse is settled remains unclear. With Russian armies looming over the Ukrainian border, room for error is perilously slim.
Questions and Background
- Should Russia be allowed to keep Ukraine in its sphere of influence? Who is primarily responsible for inflaming tensions in Eastern Europe?
- If Russia invades Ukraine, should NATO respond with military action? Should such action be restricted to assisting in Ukraine’s defense?
- How can American policymakers support Ukraine and at the same time prioritize military strength and diplomatic influence in East Asia to balance against China?
Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli
Alex Vershinin. War on the Rocks. November 23, 2021.
Russia Won’t Let Ukraine Go Without A Fight
Michael Kimmage and Michael Kofman. Foreign Affairs. November 22, 2021.
The Campaign to Distract Biden from Asia
Walter Russell Mead. Wall Street Journal. November 22, 2021.
Escalating Risks on Europe’s Eastern Frontier
Daniel Fried. Just Security. November 15, 2021.
Containment Beyond the Cold War
M.E. Sarotte. Foreign Affairs. November/December 2021.