Last Friday marked the opening session of National People’s Congress in Beijing, an annual meeting of China’s highest legislative body, featuring the latest installments of the “Work Report,” which reviews economic statistics for the past year and lays out projections for the next, and the “Five-Year Plan” (the 14th, in this case), which lays out the architecture for CCP planning between 2021 and 2025, with a far eye to 2035. Context matters in assessing these documents – and in this case, context means Covid-19. During last year’s session, postponed until May because of the virus, the Party declined to make concrete economic projections. The same is true this time, though experts expect the Chinese economy to continue to hum at a healthy 8% annual growth rate. Indeed, the Plan evokes a China projecting confidence, having long overcome the pandemic while the West continues to struggle.
As the West and its allies continue to take measures to check China’s rise, its response in this Five-Year Plan is ‘self-reliance’, signaling an intent to reinvest in its domestic and regional markets, make heavy investments in technological R&D, and, most notably, ramp up military spending. In American policy circles, ‘great power competition’ is often the ‘hook’ for conversation, implying that something has only changed recently. The National People’s Congress gives occasion to recall that for the CCP, the competition has gone on for quite some time.
Questions and Background
- Even though the Five-Year Plans are informal documents, how seriously should U.S. policymakers take them as reflective of CCP attitudes?
- What are the risks of China becoming increasingly decoupled from the rest of the world in critical industries like technology?
- Policymakers frequently debate postures of ‘isolationism’ and ‘engagement’ for the United States; to what degree would China’s pivot toward the former change our own response?
America Will Only Win When China’s Regime Fails
AHS’s Zack Cooper and AHS’s Hal Brands. Foreign Policy. March 11, 2021.
Economist Explainer: What is China’s Five Year Plan?
The Economist. March 4, 2021.
China’s Post-Pandemic Future: Wuhan Wobbly?
Andrew Scobell. War on the Rocks. February 3, 2021.
China Has Two Paths to Global Dominance
AHS’ Hal Brands and Jake Sullivan. Foreign Policy. May 22, 2020.