Afghanistan After the Fall

Monday saw opposition leader Shehbaz Sharif become the prime minister of Pakistan. This followed a tumultuous week in which ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan attempted to remain in power by unconstitutionally dissolving parliament. To the north, Pakistan’s neighbor Afghanistan continues its painful adjustment to Taliban rule, with the extremist group inflaming popular opposition and humanitarian hardship. The aftermath of the Taliban’s August 2021 victory still reverberates. Tensions within Afghanistan could ripple outward to exacerbate fraught conditions in Pakistan, raising the specter of crisis in South Asia just as the world confronts war in Eastern Europe.

Some hoped the Taliban would have learned lessons from their experience in power between 1996-2001 and that the group would moderate their repressive policies, build diverse and inclusive coalitions, and seek international trust. Instead, the Taliban has resumed the hallmarks of its first reign of terror: over one million girls have been barred from school, the odious Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice has been reestablished, and extrajudicial killings are commonplace. These factors have combined with public mismanagement and have led to widespread discontent. Consequently, armed movements like the National Resistance Front are gaining momentum, and civil society leaders continue to protest abuses. For the United States, both the implosion and consolidation of the Taliban pose problems. Its collapse could spell another civil war, but its stabilization could create a sanctuary for international extremists. Policy towards the Taliban must also account for effects on Pakistan, its populous, nuclear-armed neighbor, which faces a stalled economy, insolvent treasury, fragile democracy, and recurrent hostilities with India, the great power next door.

Questions and Background

  • Is it a greater risk to regional states and to the West if the Taliban’s regime collapses or if it consolidates power?
  • In what ways are events in Afghanistan and Pakistan intertwined? Should both countries still be priorities in American national security strategy?
  • To what extent should Washington engage with the Taliban as the government of Afghanistan? What leverage do U.S. diplomats have to influence Taliban behavior? 
  • Should the U.S. assist armed resistance to the Taliban, can it also aim to eventually promote power-sharing among all Afghan factions?

The Taliban Have Not Moderated
Dipali Mukhopadhyay. Foreign Affairs. March 28, 2022.

A Dishonest Afghanistan Accounting
The Wall Street Journal. August 31, 2021.  

What Trump’s Disgraceful Deal with the Taliban Has Wrought
Kori Schake. The New York Times, August 28, 2021. 

Watch: U.S. and the Broader Middle East After Afghanistan
Michael Singh and Peter Feaver. Duke University. September 3, 2021.

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