Zero Way Out of Xi’s “Zero-Covid” Policy?

On Monday, China’s Health Minister Ma Xiaowei announced “the strictest, most thorough, most resolute and decisive” measures in combating a Covid surge, thereby doubling down on China’s “Zero-Covid” policy. The policy restricts foreign and domestic travel, shutters nonessential businesses, reduces public services, and metes out massive quarantines when cases are detected. China’s “Zero-Covid” policy has operated for two years. While PRC reporting is unreliable, most agree that this policy has contributed to China’s low infection rates. This policy, however, has faltered against the Delta and Omicron variants, as tens of millions of people are forced into quarantine. It is particularly disruptive in Shanghai, where 25 million people have been quarantined. Zero Covid has strained supply chains, and caused shortages in necessities like food and medicine. Amid this deterioration, thousands of Chinese have taken to the streets in unplanned protests.

“Zero-Covid” poses a thorny dilemma for President Xi Jinping. Continuing an unpopular policy undermines the regime, while terminating it is tantamount to admitting error — always a dangerous choice for an autocrat. Any mass outbreak of Covid would also compromise China’s narrative that it is containing the virus better than the West. All of this comes at a delicate moment for Xi, as he seeks an unprecedented third term as president of the PRC. It is unclear what path Xi might take to get himself out of this quagmire, but autocrats have a pattern of compensating for policy frustrations at home by engaging in adventurism and aggression abroad. With Cross-Strait relations between Taipei and Beijing already fraught, regime instability brought on by the PRC’s Covid woes can only worry Washington’s defense strategists. 

Questions and Background

  • Is Zero-Covid, despite its complications and costs, still the best policy for China?
  • What significance, if any, do spontaneous protests have in China in response to the “Zero-Covid” policy?
  • What decisions might Xi make to solve his current predicament? How might his choices impact American security interests? 
  • Is international health policy an area for potential cooperation between the United States and China? What are the respective benefits and downsides of cooperative vs competitive policies in this sphere?

China doubles down on zero-Covid policy ahead of Communist Party congress
Zhuang Pinghui. South China Morning Post. April 20, 2022.

Opinion: Why Xi can’t quit zero-Covid
Yanzhong Huang. CNN. April 8, 2022. 

‘This is inhumane’: the cost of zero Covid in Shanghai
Vincent Ni. The Guardian, April 4, 2022. 

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