On issues from competition with China to the place of tariffs in trade policy, notable affinities exist between the Biden and Trump administration’s foreign policies. In Latin American relations, however, President Biden has sought to distinguish himself from his predecessor, vowing to center his policy on democracy and human rights, with diplomacy as its key instrument. Serious obstacles, though, stand between this vision and its realization on a hemispheric level, while acute challenges presented by Venezuela, Cuba, and the Northern Triangle of Central America will soon test its effectiveness.
Biden faces a hemisphere distinctly less hospitable to democracy than during his vice presidency. Across Latin America, the middle class is shrinking while poverty and unemployment are rising, trends exacerbated by the pandemic’s economic fallout. Political polarization increasingly afflicts the regions’ democracies as well, with nations like Peru, Brazil and Bolivia enduring constitutionally fraught standoffs between factions. The upshot of these trends has been a plunge in public support for democracy to its lowest point in decades. More immediately, the Biden administration faces three test cases for its new approach. In Venezuela’s political crisis, Biden is expected to shift emphasis from sanctions to multilateral dialogue. On Cuba, Biden plans to resume the diplomatic normalization process of the Obama years. For the Northern Triangle, Biden has pledged $4 billion to address the security, governance and economic causes of the region’s refugee crisis. Biden’s comparative success in addressing these challenges will highlight the merits and limits of his approach to the region as a whole.
Questions and Background
- Should the Biden administration make democratization a priority in Latin America?
- When dealing with dictatorships in Venezuela and Cuba that receive material help from China, Russia, and Iran, what are the limits of multilateral dialogue?
- How are U.S. policy options and problems in Cuba and Venezuela interrelated? Would detente with Cuba strengthen or weaken U.S. position vis-a-vis Venezuela?
- Addressing the economic and governance causes of a refugee crisis takes time, what can the Biden administration do to help stabilize the Northern Triangle immediately?
President Biden Should Not Underestimate Challenges in Latin America
Michael Shifter. The New York Times. February 10, 2021.
Sanctions on Corrupt Players can Build Stability in Central America
AHS’s Ryan Berg. The Hill. January 6, 2021.
A Conversation with U.S. Special Representative for Venezuela Elliott Abrams
AHS’s Elliott Abrams. CSIS. April 8, 2020.
Listen: How Biden Will Handle Latin America? CFR: The President’s Inbox. December 20, 2020.