It’s been a week since a military junta detained State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint, ending a decade of quasi-civilian rule and marking Myanmar’s first coup since 1988. Tens of thousands have taken to the streets, demanding a restoration of a government that won a landslide re-election last November, the largest in the country since the “Saffron Revolution” of 2007, which ended with a bloody military crackdown. While scuffles have broken out, the junta has largely stuck to official statements, water cannons, and internet blackouts to control the crowds. Both within the country and around the globe, all parties wait nervously for what’s next.
More broadly, Myanmar’s coup symbolizes democratic backsliding throughout Southeast Asia. Once promising strides taken by Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Cambodia have in recent years faltered. Yet another domino falling presents a key early challenge to the Biden administration’s promise to emphasize democratic values in U.S. foreign policy. China, for both ideological and economic reasons ($1 billion+ trade relationship with Myanmar), has remained mostly quiet. While the State Department has led much of the free world in condemning the coup, there are notable holdouts, including critical regional ally Japan, which also has significant trade interests in Myanmar. This episode may in many ways preview how the Biden team chooses to tackle the China question in its regional sphere.
Questions and Background
- What should U.S. policymakers’ response to the coup be? Should it be tethered to a broader strategy to tackle democratic regression in the region?
- To what degree should the United States put pressure on allies who have an economic stake in Myanmar, like Japan, to toe our common ideological line?
- If Myanmar could be seen as a proxy conflict in great power competition with China, in what ways should U.S. policymakers deploy ideological justifications for diplomatic actions? What might alternative strategies look like?
Myanmar’s Coup: Policy Options
Joshua Kurlantzick. Council on Foreign Relations. February 1, 2021.
Will Biden Have to Choose Between US Interests and Human Rights?
AHS’ Matthew Kroenig & Emma Ashford. Foreign Policy. February 5, 2021.
Waylaid by Contradictions: Evaluating Trump’s Indo-Pacific Strategy
AHS’s Ashley Tellis. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. December 11, 2020.
Listen: “Primacy Anxiety & America’s Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific”
AHS’s Zack Cooper. War on the Rocks. February 8, 2021.