A key chord in Donald Trump’s 2016 rise was a promise to terminate ‘bad deals’ made by previous administrations on the international stage – of these, public enemy number one was the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The agreement aimed to avert Iran’s development of nuclear weapons and subject its facilities to international oversight. In exchange, Tehran would receive relief from the sanctions that had been choking its economy. The Trump Administration withdrew from the deal in 2018 and reinstalled sanctions, claiming that the Obama-era agreement was inadequate since it did not address other aspects of Iran’s destabilizing behavior in the region. In 2019, Iran began flouting some of the restrictions placed on its nuclear development programs, raising international alarm bells and prompting candidates in the Democratic Party primaries, including President Biden, to promise to reinstate the JCPOA.
Though a priority for Biden’s first hundred days in office, the prospects for renewing or renegotiating the JCPOA now look increasingly grim as Tehran refuses to come to the table, even under the previous terms. In September 2020, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Zarif publicly stated that his country would refuse to negotiate and demanded $1 trillion in damages for the re-imposed sanctions, a sentiment echoed this week by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Both look ahead it appears to elections this June: a hard-line conservative is likely to replace outgoing President Rouhani, whose signature deal lies in tatters and seems destined to remain that way for some time to come.
Questions and Background
- If Iran entered into negotiations, what sort of deal should U.S. policymakers strive for? Should the focus be solely on nuclear weapons or should it include Iran’s malign behavior in the broader region?
- Given the current standoff, what kinds of concessions could the Biden Administration consider to bring Iran back to the bargaining table?
- If Iran rebuffs negotiations, in what ways should U.S. strategy change, or not change, in the absence of a deal?
Biden Shouldn’t Return to the Iran Deal
AHS’s Mark Dubowitz and Reuel Marc Gerhrect. National Review. March 16, 2021.
Who’s to Blame for Stalling U.S.-Iran Negotiations?
AHS’s Matthew Kroenig and Emma Ashford. Foreign Policy. March 5, 2021.
The Real Roots of Iranian Anti-Americanism
AHS’s Michael Rubin. The National Interest. February 27, 2021.
What is the Iran Nuclear Deal?
CFR Backgrounder. Council on Foreign Relations.