From 1949 to 1979, the status of Taiwan was a constant source of tension between the People’s Republic of China and the United States, threatening at its gravest moments the perils of nuclear war. Today, the combination of geopolitical competition between the United States and PRC and worsening relations between Beijing and Taipei has reactivated Taiwan as a flashpoint in great power conflict.
Taiwan was central to the normalization of relations between the PRC and the United States in 1979, when Washington formally acknowledged “there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China,” while still retaining informal ties with Taiwan. This position was reinforced by Taiwan’s then governing Kuomintang Party in 1992, which assented to the idea of “One China.” This papering over of differences has all but unraveled in subsequent decades, however. In 2016, the Kuomintang lost power to the Democratic Progressive Party of Tsai Ing-wen, who in 2019 repudiated the 1992 Consensus between the PRC and Kuomintang. The PRC has aggressively responded to the One China principle’s declining popularity in Taiwan with military exercises that violate Taiwanese territory and a strident propaganda campaign against Tsai and her party. Meanwhile, the United States under President Trump markedly bolstered both diplomatic and military support for Taiwan, a stance sustained by the Biden administration. Taiwan’s value to the United States is twofold: strategically as a forward position to deter aggressive PRC behavior in East Asia, and morally as a liberal-democratic contrast to the PRC’s authoritarian system. Supporting Taiwan while also managing tensions with a rivalrous PRC may prove great labor of diplomacy in the years ahead.
Questions and Background
- Should the U.S. military adopt a “forward defense” in relation to Taiwan, strengthening its position in the region in order to deter PRC aggression?
- If Taiwan were to formally declare itself an independent country, should the United States recognize it?
- Why is an independent Taiwan (de facto or formally) in the U.S. national interest? How should Washington respond if Beijing decided to use force over Taiwan?
The State of (Deterrence by) Denial
Elbridge Colby and Walter Slocombe. War On the Rocks. March 22, 2021.
The US and China Finally Get Real With Each Other
Thomas Wright. The Atlantic. March 22, 2021.
Is Taiwan the Next Hong Kong?
Michael Green and Evan Medeiros. Foreign Affairs. July 8, 2020.
China-Taiwan Relations
CFR Backgrounder. Council on Foreign Relations.