After three failed efforts last week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is meeting his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov tomorrow in perhaps a final attempt to peaceably resolve a military standoff between Russia and Ukraine. The alternatives hazard violence and political upheaval on a scale unseen since the Cold War.
In 2014, Ukrainian president and Russian ally Viktor Yanukovych fled the country following mass demonstrations against his regime’s corruption. Russia subsequently seized Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and stoked a separatist insurgency in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. 2015 saw an uneasy ceasefire reached between Ukraine and the separatists. In late 2021, however, Russia appeared poised to renew hostilities, having amassed over 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s frontier. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues Ukraine’s partnership with NATO necessitates this military buildup. To reduce tensions, Putin demands NATO accept “security guarantees” forswearing expansion into Eastern Europe and abandoning military exercises in former Soviet Republics. NATO has rejected these conditions as subversive to the alliance’s integrity and open-door policy. Recent diplomacy has failed to sway either side.
Many now see war clouds on the horizon: Russian diplomats ominously declared dialogue “a dead end.” Yet Lavrov has also denied that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine. The material and human costs of a major war are immense. Some analysts argue Russian aims are limited, such as securing freshwater for Crimea, widening its buffer around Donetsk, or simply improving its bargaining position in future talks. Russia has other options to pressure Ukraine and NATO, including repositioning its nuclear arsenal and launching cyber attacks. The United States and its NATO allies have vowed to impose severe economic sanctions on Russia should it invade Ukraine. Blinken met with Ukraine’s President Volodymr Zelensky on Tuesday to signal solidarity for the embattled democracy. The depth of Washington’s commitment to Ukraine could be tested to its limits in the coming days.
Questions and Background
- Should Russia be allowed to have a sphere of influence and impose limits on NATO enlargement?
- Is it in the U.S. interest to intervene if Russia invades Ukraine? How should NATO counter Russian pressure against Ukraine that does not rise to the threshold of a major invasion?
- Why is Russia willing to risk major economic and military costs in Ukraine in order to set limits on NATO expansion and military exercises?
- To what extent does the Kremlin’s aggression in Ukraine and recent support for embattled allies in Belarus and Kazakhstan show its limitations and its strengths?
How to Halt Putin’s Ukraine Push
Walter Russell Mead. The Wall Street Journal. January 17, 2022.
Time for NATO to Close Its Door for Good.
Michael Kimmage. Foreign Affairs. January 17, 2022.
Seven Rules for Exiting Misplaced U.S. and NATO Talks with Russia
Luke Coffey. Heritage Foundation. January 14, 2022.
Did I Invade? Do You Exist?
James Meek. The London Review of Books. January 6, 2022.
Listen: Discussing Ukraine and US-Russian Negotiations
Kori Schake. ABC Radio. January 9, 2022.