Richard Nephew, U.S. deputy special envoy for Iran, left the administration this weekend as negotiations between the United States and Iran reach a critical point. Nephew’s departure suggests trouble for the Biden team’s effort to restore a nuclear agreement with Iran. Doing so is a pillar of President Biden’s foreign policy, reversing his predecessor’s decision to abandon the existing 2015 agreement in 2018 and reimpose economic sanctions on Iran.
The U.S. finds itself negotiating with a very different Iran. After 2018, Iran increased support for Iraqi militias and relaunched its nuclear program. The Iranians are enriching uranium at higher levels, increasing their uranium stockpile, improving their nuclear facilities, and barring international inspection. Iran is now close to enriching uranium at the threshold needed for a nuclear weapon. The present sanctions regime has not reduced Iran to similar hardship as it faced while negotiating the 2015 agreement. Iranian politicians and public sentiment today are intensely adversarial to the U.S. There is less trust that America won’t back out of a deal after another election cycle. With negotiations stalling and mutual frustrations mounting, the prospect of forging an agreement with Iran diminishes. All the while, Iran grows ever closer to gaining a nuclear weapon.
Questions and Background
- Should the use of military force feature in U.S. efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons? Can diplomacy work?
- How would a nuclear Iranian affect U.S. interests regionally? How would Israel and the Gulf Arab states respond to Iran?
- What limitations are there to a sanctions-focused policy?
- Is a nuclear deal with Iran more important to U.S. interests than maintaining close relations with allies like Israel and longtime partners like the Gulf Arab states?
Five lies that condemn Biden’s Iran diplomacy
Michael Rubin. Washington Examiner. January 23, 2022.
A Plan B for Iran
Michael Singh. Foreign Affairs. October 25, 2021.
A New Crisis Between America and Iran Looms
The Economist. October 12, 2021.
Michael Morell on the Top Global Threats in 2022
Michael Morell. Intelligence Matters. January 5, 2022.