Last weekend, we hosted our Peace Through Strength Boot Camp for our National Defense Fellows. During the opening dinner our guest speaker, former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, posed a serious question to the cohort: is the United States prepared for an armed conflict with China? While various speakers addressed specific issues, ranging from civil-military relations to technology and the future of warfare, this common question remained present. Unfortunately, the answer to that question was rather grim. It became very clear that the United States has started to fall behind China, raising serious questions about the U.S. security commitment to our allies and our prospects for success on the potential battlefield.
The quintessential element for America’s military success historically, as stressed by many speakers, was America’s technological advantage over its adversaries. It is for that reason that many in defense policy look toward China with serious concern. While true in recent years, the idea that China “steals” its technology from the United States is largely a misnomer today. China has invested heavily in its military research and development, reaping the reward of now leading the United States in various technological spheres. China has developed weapons to give it an edge over the United States, such as satellite-killing missiles, to increase its chances for victory in a potential conflict with the United States. The United States, comparatively, has suffered major setbacks in technological innovations. A combination of lack of funding, ineffective innovations, and military stubbornness has proved to be a constant hurdle in the race against China.
Questions and Background
- How does the United States losing its technological edge over its adversaries affect its grand strategy? How is technological superiority critical to national security?
- How do large defense companies (Boeing, Raytheon, Northrop, etc.) advance or hamper technological innovation?
- Where should the United States focus its technological innovations for a potential war with its adversaries? What unique problems do China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea pose?
- What innovations have our adversaries made to target the United States military and greater society as a whole?
Size Matters: A Slim U.S. Air Force Can’t Go Toe-To-Toe With China
Mackenzie Eaglen. 1945. September 24, 2022.
The Great Tech Rivalry: China v. the U.S.
Graham Allison, et al. Belfer Center. December 2021.
There’s No Turning Back on AI in the Military
Will Roper. WIRED. October 24, 2020.