This Sunday, October 16, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will host its 20th National Congress. The National Congress occurs once every five years, and many scholars are anticipating this congress to be particularly historic. Xi Jinping, now head of the party for 10 years, is expected to utilize this congress to solidify his prospects for an unprecedented third five-year term. Scholars are anticipating that Xi will cycle some new officials within his Politburo and Politburo Standing Committee, although it is difficult to predict exactly who will get the nod. Finally, and most importantly, all eyes will be looking for any indication of Xi’s successor, as the aging autocrat approaches his 70th birthday.
The CCP hosting the 20th National Congress is significantly more ambitious than the CCP of the 19th National Congress in 2017. Over the last five years, Xi has created the most advanced surveillance state in the world in the name of national security. Furthermore, China has also increased its military capabilities to project power abroad more assertively. Xi’s current office director of the CCP’s Central Foreign Affairs Commission, Yang Jiechi, is likely to retire during the upcoming congress. This will allow Xi to place his preferred candidate in the Politburo seat overseeing foreign affairs, with many in the U.S. national security community closely watching his choice. Rumors have it that Xi has two leading options, Lui Jieyi and Wang Yi, both having worked extensively on Taiwan affairs, possibly an indication that Xi’s assertive foreign policy is likely to increase. There is also the potential this upcoming congress will be the last national congress before an attempt to “reunify” Taiwan with the mainland, placing even greater importance on Xi’s decisions.
Questions and Background
- What is China’s grand strategy? Are CCP’s goals regional or global?
- What are the short-term and long-term implications of Xi Jinping’s personalized and consolidated power?
- How will China formulate its foreign policy to project its power?
- Does China actively desire to dismantle the international order created by the United States? If so, how?
- What is the likelihood that PRC will invade Taiwan? What should U.S. response be if that happens?
What If China Wins?
Ian Easton. 1945. October 9, 2022.
The Chinese Communist Party
Council on Foreign Relations Backgrounder. Updated Oct. 6, 2022.
War Over Taiwan Is Nowhere Near Inevitable
Michael Mazza. Foreign Policy. October 6, 2022.
Xi Jinping’s Quest for Order
Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Foreign Affairs. October 3, 2022.