In 2017, the National Security Strategy identified China as a strategic rival to the United States, explaining that China challenges “American power, influence, and interests.” This view replaced a longstanding consensus that diplomatic and economic engagement would convert China into a “responsible stakeholder” of the international order, even into a democracy. Those who view China as a strategic rival argue that Beijing’s repressiveness at home, aggression abroad, and predatory economic behavior expose the failure of engagement. Specifically, the PRC’s abuse of minorities, the militarization of international waterways, hostility towards Taiwan, and discriminatory trade practices disprove claims that China is liberalizing. Backers of engagement, however, counter that since the 1970s, China has matured from being a destabilizing force to a constructive player in the international order, as well as becoming a lucrative American trading partner.
Like its predecessor, the Biden administration views China as a great power rival. Talk of a “new Cold War” increasingly features in Washington policy debate as a conceptual template for developing U.S. strategic goals towards Beijing. A Cold War with China harbors military, diplomatic, and economic elements, and arguably exacerbates already strained Sino-American relations. However, supporters of a new Cold War paradigm, or a “full spectrum of competition,” argue that preventing direct military conflict with China necessitates treating Beijing as we did the Soviet Union: building diplomatic coalitions to mediate disputes from a position of strength, investing in new technologies, and sustaining a credible military deterrent to prevent flash-points like Taiwan from becoming conflict zones. This approach is not without risk. Yet just as U.S. strategy in the first Cold War discouraged the Soviet Union from aggressively overreaching and sparking global catastrophe, so could treating relations with China as a new Cold War contribute to keeping the peace in this century.
Questions and Background
- What lessons can we learn from the Cold War to help us understand the rivalry with China?
- Was there a better alternative to the “engaging and balancing” strategy of the last generation? If so, what was it?
- Why did it take too long for the United States to “wake up” to the threat from China?
- How should American policymakers balance other priorities, such as global climate policy or countering Russian aggression in Europe, when devising strategy toward China?
- What would a world order led by China be like and what rules and principles guide it?
America Is Showering China With New Restrictions
Eric Sayers & Ivan Kanapathy, Foreign Policy, February 15, 2022.
What the New China Focus Gets Wrong
Richard Fontaine, Foreign Affairs, November 2, 2021.
The U.S. Should Want a Cold War With China
Gabriel Scheinmann, The Wall Street Journal, February 10, 2022.