Russian embassies have been the site of passionate protests the world over, as citizens from Madrid to Berlin to Washington have gathered to express their outrage at Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In Taiwan’s capital Taipei, however, demonstrations against Russian aggression have a local resonance: the slogan “today, Ukraine, tomorrow Taiwan!” now pervades Taiwanese media. If Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not stopped, the thinking goes, what would deter the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from seizing Taiwan?
In 1949, the Kuomintang relocated its “Republic of China” government to Taiwan following their defeat by the Communists in China’s civil war. In the 1990s, Taiwan became democratic, and its population is increasingly wary of reunification with the authoritarian regime on the mainland. Meanwhile, PRC President Xi Jinping has stridently championed the “One China Principle,” which proclaims Taiwan an integral part of China. The upshot has been a serious deterioration in cross-Strait relations. Xi warned in 2019 that any effort by Taiwan to assert sovereignty would be met by force. Since then, he has calibrated a multifaceted pressure campaign, seeking to isolate Taiwan diplomatically, intimidate it militarily, and undermine it economically.
The United States traditionally maintains “strategic ambiguity” towards Taiwan, never publicly declaring how it would respond to an attack from the mainland. Likewise, Washington does not recognise Taiwan’s sovereignty or the PRC’s claims to sovereignty over Taiwan. American policymakers, though, have adapted to Beijing’s recent aggression toward the island. The Trump administration began sending high-ranking official delegations to Taiwan and increased arms sales to the island. The Biden administration has built on regional partnerships like “The Quad” that balance China’s ambitions. Taiwan’s advanced economy is crucial to high-tech supply chains, and its prosperous democratic society offers an eloquent riposte to the PRC’s insistence that economic gains and authoritarian government go hand in hand. Add to that Taiwan’s strategic position athwart major sea lanes, and its importance to American global interests becomes acutely apparent. Deterring conflict between China and Taiwan then is a looming challenge for American foreign policy.
Questions and Background
- Why is Taiwan important for U.S. interests?
- Is “strategic ambiguity” still an effective posture, or would an explicit American security commitment to Taiwan better deter an attack from the mainland?
- In addition to security aid, how can Washington help Taiwan resist Chinese political and economic leverage?
- What would be the consequences of a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan?
- How have recent events in Hong Kong and Xinjiang changed opinions in Taiwan and the global community about Taiwan’s potential incorporation into China?
Invasions Are Not Contagious
Oriana Skylar Mastro, Foreign Affairs, March 3, 2022.
Lessons From Ukraine for Deterrence Against China
Charles Edel and John Lee. American Purpose, March 2, 2022.
Even an “Asia First” Strategy Needs to Deter Russia in Ukraine
Gabriel Scheinmann and Michael Green, Foreign Policy, February 17, 2022.
Listen: China Expert Bonnie Glaser on Taiwan-China Tensions
Intelligence Matters. Bonnie Glaser